Asti: Examining the Possible Ceiling, Floor for WVU Football in 2024

Even though there’s reason for WVU fans to be optimistic about the 2024 season, nothing is ever a a sure thing. So while some are dreaming of a Big 12 title and a trip to the College Football Playoff, West Virginia’s schedule won’t do the Mountaineers ant favors this season.

What’s ceiling and floor for WVU in 2024?

Ceiling: 10-2 – Big 12 champions 

Starting with the ceiling, WVU does have a legitimate opportunity to break into the College Football Playoff thanks to winning the Big 12. While Utah, a newcomer to the conference, is the clear favorite entering the season, and teams like Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State and even others are viable threats well, West Virginia does have most of their toughest conference games at home and a relatively easy runway at the end of the season to make up for any early losses.

Any team who brings back most of its core from a successful season, adds key pieces to fill holes and expects incumbent stars to take their games to another level has a chance to win a championship. The 2024 West Virginia Mountaineers do meet all of that criteria.

However, the depth of conference suggests everyone may beat up on each other, making it truly wide open. In all reality, 10 wins is being placed as the ceiling, but likely means a season opening win over Penn State. And if Penn State is a loss, the Mountaineers would then have to win on the road at Arizona or run through the gauntlet schedule to open conference play.

Floor: 6-6 – barely bowl eligible 

As for the floor, it’s possible WVU is a good team but the schedule still proves to be too much to have a special session. There’s still too much talent for this to be a 2022-style losing season and miss bowl eligibility all together. So with that said, figuring a loss to the Nittany Lions, the concern about a rivalry like the Backyard Brawl no matter the quality of Pitt and then facing several preseason ranked teams in conference play, the floor for the 2024 Mountaineers could be 7-5, or even fall as low as a 6-6 regular season and major disappointment throughout all of Mountaineer Nation.

What’s actually going to happen? 

Record prediction: 8-4 

At the end of the day, I do believe the 2024 Mountaineers are a better and more well rounded team than they were one year ago. But with that said, the schedule should be tougher, especially at the start of Big 12 play. I see WVU keeping it close with Penn State to open the season, but still falling short of the historic moment at home. I also believe the long road trip to Arizona will be too much and have that game circled as a loss. Add in a couple other “swing” games going the wrong way and West Virginia finishes 8-4.

WVU Football 2024 Season Media Predictions

I will add, I would not be surprised if WVU drops the season finale at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are not a better team or program, but that is a miserable road trip to end a season and could be a “trap” game before the bowl, or especially if it’s ahead of the Big 12 Championship Game with everything on the line.

An 8-4 season will likely mean Neal Brown continues on as head coach and most of the recruiting etc stays the same. So while I don’t envision a truly special year, certainly not the best in program history by any means, I also don’t see WVU falling off a cliff or 2023 being just some aberration. I expect a fun season and a solid bowl game appearance, but I don’t expect a Big 12 title.

In summary, only a few people have WVU truly contending for a spot in the College Football Playoff, either thanks to a Big 12 championship or an at-large bid. Ari Temkin is probably the only one of the 10 win projectors without a fan bias factored in. However, most of those polled do have West Virginia experiencing a quality season overall. On the flip side, one person does have the Mountaineers crawling to bowl eligibility late in the season.

For a related story, who are some potential breakout candidates for WVU in 2024? Also, who are the transfer additions poised for a big year?

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