National CFB Analyst Argues 4.5 for WVU’s Projected Win Total is Too High

Few analysts are predicting WVU to win more than they lose this upcoming football season, but one seems to feel the Mountaineers will actually be worse than they were in 2022.

In response to DraftKings releasing their early predictions for college football win totals, Jesse Simonton of On3.com argued 4.5 for West Virginia is actually too high. Simonton has been giving his thoughts on if win total projections were too high, just right or too low for every team in each major conference, making it now the Big 12’s turn.

Analyzing Big 12 Win Total Projections via @JesseReSimonton🔍

Do you agree?🤔https://t.co/HIOETeGdZF pic.twitter.com/hAQd0fyOH1

— On3 (@On3sports) May 25, 2023

Simonton’s reasoning:

“Neal Brown has openly acknowledged that he enters a must-win fall at West Virginia, and yet the AD who hired him (and has since been fired) did him little favors with a non-conference schedule that includes a road opener at Penn State and then the Backyard Brawl versus Pitt two weeks later.

The conference schedule doesn’t include Texas or Kansas State, and yet West Virginia still won’t be favored in more than three games all season.”

It’s tough to argue against Simonton’s points. WVU’s out of conference schedule includes multiple Power Five teams, one arch rival, one old rival on the road to start the season and only one FCS opponent. This is a tougher set up than many other similar programs out of conference, especially when the Big 12 only allows room for three non conference games, not four like say ACC team are often able to play. In addition to a tough schedule, the Mountaineers will have a quarterback who has never been a full-time starter at the college level under center and there are plenty of other uncertainties that surround the team.

Reality for Brown, WVU

To be fair to Brown, he has done a solid job of trying to improve the roster as much as possible with transfers this offseason. Unfortunately for Brown, it may not be enough entering his fifth season as head coach. And if WVU doesn’t appear to be climbing again, Brown’s time in Morgantown will likely run out.

Asti: Neal Brown Filled WVU’s Needs for Offense in Transfer Portal

No excuse will matter, and Brown has to find a way to find better results and win more in 2023 or the next offseason will be about finding a new leader to help get a once-proud program back to glory.